Work Package 5.1 - Ecosystem futures

Objectives

To provide future projections of key environmental variables (e.g. sea temperature, salinity, nutrient fluxes) in each of the three case study regions (North Sea, Baltic, western Mediterranean)
To offer insight into the future distribution and productivity of commercial fish and invertebrates, potential invasive species, animals and plants of conservation interest, in response to long-term climate change and key anthropogenic drivers
To develop and apply an integrative, cross-sectoral modelling framework that allows evaluation of the costs and tradeoffs of maintaining economic activity in various sectors (e.g. fisheries, aquaculture, renewable energy exploration, maritime traffic, tourism, sand and aggregate extractions,) while protecting natural resources (e.g. biodiversity, habitat structure and ecosystem services in offshore and nearshore regions)

M1	Kick off meeting (first project meeting) and first meeting of the Reference User Group (month 1)
M4	Workshop on the selection and setup of climatic and socio-political simulation scenarios (month 3)
M10	First integrating workshops (month 12)
M12	Second project meeting (month 14)
M16	Integrated report on drivers and pressures of change (month 18)
M19	Outputs available from biogeochemical models (month 18)
M20	Second integrating workshops (month 18)
M23	Third integrating workshops (month 24)
M24	Maps and projections of future species distribution/productivity (month 24)
M26	Third project meeting (month 26)
M27	Third regional seas workshops - modelling of future scenarios (month 28)
M32	Fourth project meeting (month 34)
M37	Multisector projections available (month 42)
M40	Final project meeting (month 46)